Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Week 3 What We Learned

All offseason football fans were worried that we might miss NFL games due to the lockout. In the end, we got the whole season but at what price? The lack of full preseason workouts is a contributor to the rash of injuries to big name stars like Kenny Britt and Jamaal Charles; as well as the slow starts of others like Frank Gore and Chris Johnson. Injuries happen, and the lockout cannot be blamed 100%, but it is a factor.

Speaking of injuries: Michael Vick is going to get hit a lot and will miss games this season. Guaranteed. If you own Michael Vick and haven't already made a move for a decent backup you must do this now. I like Matt Hasselback and Rex Grossman for this move.

Matthew Stafford and Ryan Fitzpatrick are each 3-0 and in the top 10 for quarterbacks. To own them is to love them.

Wes Welker is averaging 10 catches, 152 yards and a touchdown a game. Of those numbers, the 10 catches a game will be the only one to potentially hold up season-long. There is a fall off, but Welker is still one of the most valuable receivers in fantasy.

LaDanian Tomlinson still has a little left in the tank and made sure the Oakland Raiders knew this with a 70 yards touchdown reception. He may not be a reliable fantasy option at his age, but in deeper leagues or in desperate injury situations he is a boom or bust option.

Ben Roethlisberger has almost three times as many turnovers as touchdowns.

Fred Jackson is playing lights out in Buffalo.

Free Agents - Nate Washington, Bernard Scott, Torrey Smith, Rex Grossman, David Nelson

How I Did: Week 3

This is where you get to see the results of my predictions and determine whether you trust me or not. Remember, if I call someone a "HIT" it doesn't necessarily mean they are going to have a monster game, and vice versa. In the "Hits and Misses" column read the two to three sentences to see what I mean by "HIT" or "MISS." Also, whenever I talk about fantasy points I am speaking of ESPN Standard League Scoring.

With Kenny Britt's season ending ACL/MCL tear Nate Washington stands to benefit the most. Also benefiting from a starter not playing could be Bernard Scott with Cedric Benson's upcoming suspension. Finally, if your first three catches in your NFL career go for touchdowns, you will be picked up in fantasy football, if only on speculation. If you have room on your roster, stash Smith there and see how he plays for the next few weeks. As far as Grossman, you could do a lot worse for a bye week quarterback than Sexy Rexy. David Nelson has 20 catches in three games and the Bills do not look like they are abandoning the passing game any time soon. Nelson is third on the depth chart but is making catches and getting yards out of the slot.

Hits and Misses from Week 3

Jay Cutler, MISS - "He will probably be sacked around four times and throw two picks." Three sacks and two picks puts me spot on. Also, Cutler finished 11th (again in ESPN standard scoring) among quarterbacks for the week.

Matt Forte, HIT - Hard to call a two yard rushing performance with no touchdowns a hit. But he did finish in the top 25 for running backs (it was that kind of week), including ending ahead of Jahvid Best, Ben Tate, Chris Johnson and Rashard Mendenhall. He did this by grabbing 80 receiving yards. Still, it would have been nice to get a score out of him, but this is a hit only by how much worse other running backs did than him.

Tony Romo, HIT - I took a shot, and I was wrong. The Cowboys won, and Romo was key in leading the winning drive, but he never scored, threw one interception and ended with eight fantasy points.

Ben Roethlisberger, HIT - The guy threw for 364 yards, you would think that would lead to more than just one touchdown. But three turnovers has Big Ben looking like the Big Bust for the third week in a row.

Josh Freeman, MISS - Freeman's rushing touchdown saved him from having a God-awful day, and put him straddling the line between a terrible and a decent-to-middling day.

Maurice Jones-Drew, HIT - No touchdowns, but he rushed for 122 yards on 24 attempts and caught three passes for 45 yards. 16 fantasy points was good enough to be the eighth best back this week.

Cedric Benson, HIT - Two weeks in a row I have been waiting for Benson to break out, and it hasn't happened yet. With a potential three game suspension looming I am cutting bait on Benson.

Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, MISS - 29 total combined touches (rushing and receiving) for a total of 95 all-purpose yards. No touchdowns. If you combined them this week they were still barely a starting back.

Steve Smith, HIT - Two catches for 27 yards and no touchdowns a HIT does not make.

Reggie Wayne, MISS - Neither does three for 24 yards and no TDs.

AJ Green, HIT - Again, no scores and only 29 receiving yards.

Deion Branch, HIT - Tom Brady threw 45 times, completing 30 of them. Of those 30, 23 were caught by either Wes Welker or Rob Gronkowski (including all four touchdowns). Of Brady's 387 yards Welker and Gronkowski nabbed 326 of them. This leaves seven potential catches and 61 potential yards (although no touchdowns) for Branch to have had. His final numbers? 0 and 0.

Hakeem Nicks, MISS - Manning threw four touchdowns, none to Nicks who finished with two fantasy points.

Rob Gronkowski, HIT - see above.

I finish 8-6 on the week and 17-10-1 for the season.

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Hits and Misses: Week 3

Hits and Misses will be a weekly post that features the fantasy players I feel play well (hits) and those that won't (misses). You start your stars, that's a given, but this is a column for those guys on the edge. Guys you might start or not. That said, sometimes the stars will make cameos if I think their positioned to have bigger than normal games.

Jay Cutler, CHI (Green Bay) MISS - Last season the Bears and Packers split the regular season before the Packers eliminated Chicago in the NFC Championship - knocking Cutler out of the game. As I have mentioned, Cutler was sacked a league leading 52 times last year, and currently leads the league with 11. Clay Matthews is a sack master and the Packers will try to exploit the Bears' offensive line. He will probably be sacked around four times and throw two picks.

Matt Forte, CHI (Green Bay) HIT - My love affair continues. Because of the pressure, Cutler will be forced to check down and Forte remains the main beneficiary.

Tony Romo, DAL (Washington) HIT - Think those first two were gimmes? Here's one for you, Romo will play, throw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns. "What?" you say? "Miles Austin is hurt and Dez Bryant is questionable," you say? I say Romo.

Ben Roethlisberger, PITT (@Indianapolis) HIT - Big Ben gets Big Points in Indy.

Josh Freeman, TB (Atlanta) MISS - Tampa plays against a divisional opponent who must win and is playing at home, with a quarterback nicknamed "Matty Ice." But most importantly, gives up big run yards. Tampa might win, and Freeman will be middling to decent, but there are better options at quarterback this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX (@Carolina) HIT - MoJo has gotten 20+ touches in the each of the first two weeks. With Blaine Gabbert starting under center, his touches aren't going anywhere and neither are his fantasy points.

Cedric Benson, CIN (San Francisco) HIT - The Bengals are going to try and keep the Niner defense on the field and control the clock. They will do this by giving the ball to Benson, and giving it to him and giving it to him again. They don't have to worry to much about overworking him as he is receiving a mandatory vacation after this week. The only possible drawback is backup Bernard Scott stealing some carries to prepare him for Benson's suspension.

Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, KC (@San Diego) MISS - Until the Chiefs prove otherwise, don't start any of them except in case of emergency.

Steve Smith, CAR (Jacksonville) HIT - Smith is the go-to target for rookie phenom Cam Newton and luckily for Smith owners, Newton's propensity for turnovers could keep this game close and the Panthers attacking through the air.

Reggie Wayne, IND (Pittsburgh) MISS - Kerry Collins may complete more passes to Steelers defenders than his own players.

A.J. Green, CIN (San Francisco) HIT - The 49ers just suck, okay?

Deion Branch, NE (@Buffalo) HIT - I will keep saying this until Branch is owned in 100% of leagues. He jumped up to 99.5% this week, if you are in that 0.5% you must pick him up.

Hakeem Nicks, NYG (@Philadelphia) MISS - Nicks is the only receiver still standing in New York and the Eagles have Nnamdi who has held opponents top receivers to few catches. Nicks is certainly a top receiver, just not this week, and probably not until Mario Manningham and Dominick Hixon are back.

Rob Gronkowski, NE (@Buffalo) HIT - With Aaron Hernandez out, Gronkowski becomes the go-to tight end. He will very likely end up as the the top TE of the week and could be looking at a top player type of week.

Deep Cuts - Owned in less than 75% of ESPN Leagues

Hines Ward, PITT (@IND) HIT - I like Ward this week, if you are hurting from the rash of injuries and need a flex. He is no where near a consistent option this year, but the injuries of receivers around the league and the Steelers' opponent this week makes Ward worth considering.

Sunday Morning Update -
Big injury news is Arian Foster is out, which means Ben Tate is a must start. Peyton Hillis is out with strep throat, so the big waiver wire claim this morning will be Montario Hardesty. I am not convinced Hardesty is the back of the future for Cleveland, but Miami is a cushy test.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Week 2 What We Learned

We have become reliant on the internet to tally our fantasy stats for us. I can remember a time where I watched the NFL with a piece of paper waiting for halftime and between the games so I could tally my own points up. If you play on ESPN, you experienced fantasy football 1990s style when their servers went down in the second half of the early games and didn't come back online until midway through the first quarter of the late games.

On the opening drive against the Packers, Cam Newton looked like a legit NFL quarterback. He drove the ball downfield and had a 13 yard touchdown pass called back due to an illegal shift. After the penalty he threw for 19 yards on first and rushed for a first down on second. After the run game was stuffed, Newton lobbed a corner fade route to Brandon LaFell for a touchdown. He finished the drive 6/7 for 90 yards and the TD. Just as impressive was the first play of the Panthers' second drive. Newton had great protection, went through his reads and checked down to the running back for two yards. They ended up settling for the field goal, but Newton looked good. This raises the question, is Cam Newton legit? If he's available in your league he is worth a waiver wire pick up to stash on your bench. Especially in dynasty leagues. He is going to make mistakes, like three interceptions, but he's also going to score points. I'm all in on Cam Newton future domination of the NFL.

Other players I am all in on: LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Tom Brady. If you can swing a trade for McCoy or Forte don't hesitate. They will both finish as top ten fantasy backs.

Eli Manning should not be your starting quarterback. Period. This sentence originally had Tony Romo in place of Manning, but I reconsidered. Besides his fourth quarter mistakes against the Jets, Romo has looked solid. I still think he shouldn't be your starting quarterback, with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Felix Jones all banged up, not to mention Romo's ribs/lung. Still, if he was your starting QB, keep him on your bench for more favorable times.

Mike Tolbert's production out of the backfield, as well as Vincent Jackson's big day were the product of the Patriots ability to completely take Antonio Gates out of the game. Until proven otherwise, do not start tight ends against New England.

The Bears cannot stop Jay Cutler from getting sacked. They gave up another six sacks this week. On top of the, Gabe Carimi is out for a month with an injured knee. If they felt he was their best option to start at right tackle, and you know how I felt about his pass blocking, what kind of back-up plan do they have? It is looking like the Bears offensive line will repeat as the line that gives up the most sacks.

Jamaal Charles is out for the season and you should be scrambling to pick up Dexter McCluster whether you were a Charles owner or not.

Other notable injuries from the week include Michael Vick, Aaron Hernandez and Packers safety Nick Collinson. Collinson's season ending neck injury definitely hurts Green Bay's secondary. They will still get a good push from the front line though and its not panic time yet.

Is Buffalo for real? I have no answer for you. We will no more next week after they face the Patriots.

Top Free Agent Picksups: Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dexter McCluster, Ben Tate (how is he available in 34% of leagues?), Demarius Moore (you might drop him right away, but lets face it, there is someone on your bench you can risk dropping).

How I Did: Week 2

This is where you get to see the results of my predictions and determine whether you trust me or not. Remember, if I call someone a “HIT” it doesn't necessarily mean they are going to have a monster game, and vice versa. In the “Hits and Misses” column read the two to three sentences to see what I mean by “HIT” or “MISS.” Also, whenever I talk about fantasy points I am speaking in SLS – Standard League Scoring. Most leagues operate on 10 yards = 1 point for rushing and receiving and 25 yards = 1 point passing. Passing TDs are only worth four compared to all others being six.

Aaron Rodgers, HIT – Rodgers threw 30 times, connecting on 19 of them for three touchdowns and just over 300 yards.

LeSean McCoy, HIT – 116 all purpose yards and two touchdowns makes for a very nice day.

Drew Brees, MISS – I feel like I got this one right. Brees didn't hit the 300 yard mark, but he did throw three touchdowns and win the game. I did say Brees would get points, and I do feel like the 22 points (in standard scoring leagues) is less than his expected production. Still, he only averaged 16 points per game last season, so this is above his average. Let's call it a push.

Michael Turner, HIT – Turner performed as expected with 114 yards and a touchdown on the ground as well as 32 yards out of the backfield.

Darren McFadden, MISS – McFadden had 143 combined yards and two total touchdowns. He did fumble once, but that isn't enough to say MISS. I was wrong on this one, his shoulder apparently didn't keep him down.

Jordy Nelson, HIT – Look, it doesn't matter if it happens on one play or over the course of the game. There aren't special point reductions if someone is invisible all game then has one monster play to put up fantasy numbers. Nelson caught one pass, but it went for 84 yards and a score. That's 14 points for those of you scoring at home. He had 13 points last week. Is it too early to start considering Nelson for flex play?

Cedric Benson, HIT – I said, “The Bengals' passing game is still questionable.” Nope. Andy Dalton threw for over 300 yards and had two touchdowns in the narrow loss. I said, “Benson will get a lot of opportunities.” Nope. At least not comparatively to last week when he had 26 touches. I said, “and in his workmanlike way, will grind out yards.” A 3.7 yards per carry average is certainly workmanlike and had he got the nine extra carries he would have been between 90 and 100 yards. So I get that one, but overall I missed on the hit.

Percy Harvin, HIT – 76 yards on seven catches is certainly flex play material. After you take out the top 20 running backs and top 20 receivers of a given week, then look at the next 10 running backs and receivers combined, those are the week's best flex guys in a ten team league. This weeks best flex guys scored between nine and 11 points. Considering Harvin for flex play, with his seven points, plays.

Deion Branch, HIT – Yep. Eight catches and 129 yards is a solid outing. It isn't news that Tom Brady likes his tight ends in the red zone, but Branch is a bulk receiver who will break off long touchdowns here and there.

Joseph Addai, HIT – Nope. The one bright spot on the Colts from a fantasy perspective was kicker Adam Vinatieri.

Mike Tolbert, MISS – My right shoe is safe, as is my gastrointestinal system. (I bet I am the only fantasy blog to use the word “gastrointestinal”). Tolbert's nine rushes for 10 yards and a fumble was a giant, but expected, drop off from last week. He did have eight catches out of the backfield to keep him in positive points though.

Kenny Britt, MISS - “I will eat the right sole if Britt repeats his 136 yard, two touchdown game against Baltimore.” My left shoe is safe by one yard and one touchdown. Britt didn't “MISS,” but all I said was that he wouldn't have as good of a game as last week, and in that I was right. Barely.

Steve Smith, MISS – Cam Newton's surprising start to his career continues to benefit Smith. He didn't have a touchdown this week but still nabbed 156 yards receiving.

Owen Daniels, HIT – Daniels was the 10th best tight end. He only had three catches but one was for a touchdown. Unless you owned one of the other nine tight ends who was better, Daniels was a hit.

Record: 9-4-1


Saturday, September 17, 2011

Hits and Misses: Week 2

Hits and Misses will be a weekly post that features the fantasy players I feel will play well (hits) and those that won't (misses). You start your stars, that's a given, but this is a column for those guys on the edge. Guys you might start or not. That said, sometimes the stars will make cameos if I think their positioned to have bigger than normal games.

Aaron Rodgers, GB (@ Carolina) HIT - Do you know who is currently 11th in the league with 309 passing yards? Kevin Kolb. Do you know who Arizona played last week? The Carolina Panthers. Did you know that Aaron Rodgers is a much quarterback than Kolb? And, did you know that the Packers threw 35 times last week? I know it is risky to only use one week of play to extrapolate statistics, but we are talking about the reigning Super Bowl MVP going against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

LeSean McCoy, PHI (@ Atlanta) HIT - Last week, Chicago running back Matt Forte ran for 68 yards and caught five passes for 90 and a touchdown against the Falcons. McCoy will post similar numbers. He probably won't have a monster day on the ground, at least in terms of yards, but as a receiver out of the backfield he will. Remember, McCoy was eighth in the league last year in reception. Atlanta will be looking to blitz Vick and force him to make decisions. Often, the decision will be to dump the ball into the hands of a playmaker.

Drew Brees, NO (Chicago) MISS - Look, it's Drew freakin' Brees, you're going to start him unless you for some reason have Brady, Rodgers or Vick as well. He threw for 419 yards last week. He is a Super Bowl champion, dedicated worker and all around nice guy. But his receiving corps is missing Marques Colston and Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem can only do so much. The Bears showed they were capable of locking down a top tier receiver like Roddy White in week one, and they will be playing on the emotion of and for defensive leader Brian Urlacher. To be sure, Brees will get points, but it will be less than usual.

Michael Turner, ATL (Philadelphia) HIT - The middle of the Eagles' line is weak and Turner is a bulldozing tank with a wrecking ball. The guy weighs about 250 pounds and is nicknamed "Burner." The Falcons have little-to-no passing game out of the backfield and must establish the run to open up the secondary. Establishment, "Burner" Turner, be thy name.

Darren McFadden, OAK (Buffalo) MISS - The whole "East Coast Team travelling West" scenario is overshadowed by the "playing on a short week" and "injured" scenarios. McFadden's shoulder injury isn't significant enough to keep him out of the game, but did limit him in practice this week. It is way too early to be singing the praises of the Buffalo Bills, but they did hold Jamaal Charles to a deceiving stat line of 10 carries for 56 yards. This is not as telling as it could be, because the Bills had amassed such a lead that KC had to abandon the run and air it out. Still, I don't like McFadden this week.

Jordy Nelson, GB (Carolina) HIT - Mark my words, Nelson will develop into an every week starter by the end of the season. James Jones was nonexistent in the first week, and now that Donald Driver will have his team receiving record, Nelson will continue to come up big.

Cedric Benson, CIN (@Denver) HIT - Denver gave up big yards to Oakland last week, the Bengals' passing game is still questionable. Benson will get a lot of opportunities, and in his workmanlike way, will grind out yards.

Percy Harvin, MIN (Tampa Bay) HIT - Yes, the Vikings had 39 yards passing last week but that won't be the case all the time. Harvin is the number one receiver in Minnesota, and they ostensibly have a solid ground game in Adrian Peterson. This week, Peterson opens up the offense and allows Donovan McNabb to get the ball in Harvin's hands. Also, he is a special teams threat, as evidenced by his week one kick return for a touchdown. He should get consideration at the flex.

Deion Branch, NE (San Diego) HIT - While Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez were all making noise behind Tom Brady's 500+ yard Monday night, Branch had seven catches for 93 yards. Yards and touchdowns won't always be so easy coming for the Patriots this year, but I like Branch as WR2 or a flex.

Joseph Addai, IND (Cleveland) HIT - Would you rely on Kerry Collins to move your offense?

Mike Tolbert, SD (@New England) MISS - I will eat the left sole of my own shoe if Tolbert repeats his three touchdown performance against New England.

Kenny Britt, TEN (Baltimore) MISS - I will eat the right sole if Britt repeats his 136 yard, two touchdown game against Baltimore.

Steve Smith, CAR (Green Bay) MISS - Smith's big surprise in the first week was really a combination of Cam Newton surprising, and Arizona's terrible secondary. I am not the first to say that Newton will not get simple reads from the Packers and it will be Steve Smith's numbers who suffer.

Owen Daniels, HOU (@Miami) HIT - Daniels underwhelmed last week, but Miami gave up 517 yards and four touchdowns in the passing game. You can't expect Andre Johnson to shoulder the entire receiving load and with Kevin Walter hurting Daniels will be the beneficiary.

One Deep Cut

Lee Evans, BAL (@Tennessee) - In deeper leagues, or if you're feeling frisky, I think Evans gets at least one big yardage touchdown.


Thursday, September 15, 2011

Mid-Week Update - Handcuffing Injuries

Last season's fantasy MVP, running back Arian Foster was a near-full participant in practice Wednesday. I say "near-full" because coach Gary Kubiak reported Foster "took a normal starter workload," but he was listed as a limited participant. Either way, for fantasy owners who drafted Foster, it is looking like he will be ready to go against Miami. To be safe, if Ben Tate is still available he looked better than Derrick Ward last week so he should be picked up as a handcuff by all Foster owners.

Speaking of handcuffs, Deji Karim should garner serious consideration from MJD owners. Jones-Drew's knees appear to be made of brown paper bags - it is only a matter of time before he goes down this season. Also, in the first week MoJo had zero catches compared to Karim's three.

With the news of Steven Jackson's injury keeping him out for Week 2, Cadillac Williams has been the number one waiver wire pick-up of the week. After Jackson's first quarter injury, Williams gained 91 yards on the ground and caught five passes for 49 yards. This week he will face a Giant's defense that should give up decent yardage and a touchdown to Williams. He should garner serious consideration as a flex starter this week.

It should be noted that Michael Bush was used late in the Raider's Monday night game and Darren McFadden only practiced limitedly on Wednesday. In a shortened week if there was significant risk to McFadden he wouldn't have practiced at all.

It is tough to say how Knowshon Moreno's hamstring will affect him. He has had trouble with it before and coming off a short week gives him limited time to rehab it. Willis McGahee will get looks, but it is possible that it will Tim Tebow who benefits with red zone opportunities.

Handcuffing Futures

Jason Snelling who is currently owned in 3.8% of ESPN fantasy leagues and was drafted in less than 2% of Yahoo leagues has proved effective whenever Michael Turner gets hurt.

Thomas Jones is still ahead of Dexter McCluster on the Cheifs' depth chart, but McCluster got four carries to Jones' two, as well as catching five passes out of the backfield.


Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Week 1 What We Learned

Disclaimer: What We Learned is definitely slanted towards games I actually watch, and what I can glean from the stats of games I didn't. Obviously, games I am more likely to watch are games shown in my home market – I don't have NFL Network, games I have players in and games of my favorite team (Chicago Bears). That said, take that into account when reading What We Learned, I may miss something, or dwell on particular games that I watched all the way through (for example: The Packers/Saints game this week). Finally, if you don't like it, don't read it.

Aaron Rodgers is a stud. He threw for 200 yards and three touchdowns in the first quarter Thursday night against the Saints. It's true that he only had a little more than a 100 yards and no more touchdowns for the rest of the game, but that was a product of clock management, not the Packers' offense.

Drew Brees is a stud. If Rodgers was the hare, Brees was the steady tortoise who didn't quite win. Brees threw for three touchdowns and 419 yards. He did throw 49 times, 8 more times a game than he did last season, in a this-close come-from-behind effort. To put that in perspective, Brees' yards per attempted pass this week was 8.6. His past three seasons were 7.0 (2010), 8.5 (2009) and 8.0 (2008). So, while higher than his numbers for the last three years, it is still within the normal range for him. That said, his 49 attempts was a good bit higher than his averages for 2008-10; 40 (2008), 33 (2009), 41 (2010). What does it all mean? Brees' numbers were slightly increased because of having to play from behind for the entire game, but not by much. While I wouldn't expect consistent 400 yard games, 9-10 more 300+ games are definitely in play. With Manning out (potentially for the rest of the season), Brees will be in contention with Rodgers, Brady, Vick and possibly Rivers for the most productive fantasy quarterback of 2011.

Brees still likes to spread the ball around. While not completely apparent from the first week's stats, I think it is safe to say nobody expected 100+ yards for Devery Henderson. Before you jump on the waiver wire though, remember that if history prevails, Brees will dish out 100 yard games to Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore before the season is out. He also looked more than willing to check down to Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas who combined for 11 catches and 112 yards. I wouldn't count on a single one of them on a week-to-week basis.

Kick returns for touchdowns are still possible with the new kickoff rules. For those of you who don't already know, teams used to kick off from their own 30 yard line, but due to injury concerns, Roger Goodell and company moved the spot up five yards. During the preseason this appeared to guarantee touchback after touchback. And while this was mostly still the case, Packers rookie wideout Randall Cobb took one to the house in the third quarter, as did Minnesota's Percy Harvin's on a 103 yard opening kickoff return. Finally, Tedd Ginn Jr. for San Francisco got one and added a punt return for good measure.

Mark Ingram got the lion's share of carries for the Saints, but was only able to muster 40 yards on 13 carries, including a no gain on the final play with the game on the line.

Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy's contributions catching the ball out of the backfield will be unmeasurably valuable – well that's not entirely true, we can measure it with fantasy points. Both are in offenses that utilize the backfield as receivers.

Gabe Carimi (Rookie from the University of Wisconsin and starting right tackle for the Chicago Bears) is great in run blocking. The Bears ran off the right side often. His pass blocking is terrible. He allowed [sacks allowed stats] and of all the times Cutler was pressured, most of them came from the right side. This is bad for Cutler, especially in an offense that allowed a league leading 52 sacks last season, but good for Forte as this will even further increase his check down catches.

Cam Newton looked decent. I fully expected him to come out and have a rough start to his career, but his decision making looked good. [I wrote this in the first quarter with the intention of filling it out at the end of the game]. Then he went off for 422 yards on 24/37 and two touchdowns, as well as a rushing TD. It was against Arizona, but we will not spend the next six days hearing about how “legit” Newton is. Green Bay's defense won't give him as much next week (I mean, he isn't Drew Brees), so then we will spend another six days hearing about how rookie quarterbacks struggle for consistency. In all of this will anyone be sensible enough to realize that Newton and the Panthers will be playing Atlanta, Tampa Bay and New Orleans twice this season? Cutler threw for 312 against Atlanta, Stafford threw for 305 against Tampa and Rodgers had 312 against New Orleans. Now, Newton obviously isn't Rodgers, but isn't it conceivable that Newton could have a statistically similar year to Cutler? Take away a handful of passing touchdowns, move 'em over to the rushing column and keep the INTs the same and I think their seasons are about equal. Also, apparently the NFC South will give up passing yards. The rest of the Panther's schedule isn't that tough either. After the Packers, Carolina will face, in order: Jacksonville, Chicago, New Orleans, Atlanta, Washington, Minnesota, bye, Tennessee, Detroit, Indianapolis, Tampa, Atlanta, Houston, Tampa, New Orleans. Could Newton have a 3,000 yard season? Does a bear shit in the woods? The question will be his touchdown versus interception ratio. We learned this: It is in play for Newton to be a top 12 fantasy quarterback as a rookie.

Shorts:

Mike Tolbert had three touchdowns on Sunday in case anybody was wondering.

Ray Rice could end up as this season's fantasy MVP.

Tom Brady is very, very good.

Ben Roethlisberger owners shouldn't be hitting the panic button yet.

Neither should Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore or DeAngelo Williams owners.

Jamaal Charles owners should have their finger hovering just above the panic button.