Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Week 3 What We Learned
How I Did: Week 3
Saturday, September 24, 2011
Hits and Misses: Week 3
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Week 2 What We Learned
We have become reliant on the internet to tally our fantasy stats for us. I can remember a time where I watched the NFL with a piece of paper waiting for halftime and between the games so I could tally my own points up. If you play on ESPN, you experienced fantasy football 1990s style when their servers went down in the second half of the early games and didn't come back online until midway through the first quarter of the late games.
On the opening drive against the Packers, Cam Newton looked like a legit NFL quarterback. He drove the ball downfield and had a 13 yard touchdown pass called back due to an illegal shift. After the penalty he threw for 19 yards on first and rushed for a first down on second. After the run game was stuffed, Newton lobbed a corner fade route to Brandon LaFell for a touchdown. He finished the drive 6/7 for 90 yards and the TD. Just as impressive was the first play of the Panthers' second drive. Newton had great protection, went through his reads and checked down to the running back for two yards. They ended up settling for the field goal, but Newton looked good. This raises the question, is Cam Newton legit? If he's available in your league he is worth a waiver wire pick up to stash on your bench. Especially in dynasty leagues. He is going to make mistakes, like three interceptions, but he's also going to score points. I'm all in on Cam Newton future domination of the NFL.
Other players I am all in on: LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Tom Brady. If you can swing a trade for McCoy or Forte don't hesitate. They will both finish as top ten fantasy backs.
Eli Manning should not be your starting quarterback. Period. This sentence originally had Tony Romo in place of Manning, but I reconsidered. Besides his fourth quarter mistakes against the Jets, Romo has looked solid. I still think he shouldn't be your starting quarterback, with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Felix Jones all banged up, not to mention Romo's ribs/lung. Still, if he was your starting QB, keep him on your bench for more favorable times.
Mike Tolbert's production out of the backfield, as well as Vincent Jackson's big day were the product of the Patriots ability to completely take Antonio Gates out of the game. Until proven otherwise, do not start tight ends against New England.
The Bears cannot stop Jay Cutler from getting sacked. They gave up another six sacks this week. On top of the, Gabe Carimi is out for a month with an injured knee. If they felt he was their best option to start at right tackle, and you know how I felt about his pass blocking, what kind of back-up plan do they have? It is looking like the Bears offensive line will repeat as the line that gives up the most sacks.
Jamaal Charles is out for the season and you should be scrambling to pick up Dexter McCluster whether you were a Charles owner or not.
Other notable injuries from the week include Michael Vick, Aaron Hernandez and Packers safety Nick Collinson. Collinson's season ending neck injury definitely hurts Green Bay's secondary. They will still get a good push from the front line though and its not panic time yet.
Is Buffalo for real? I have no answer for you. We will no more next week after they face the Patriots.
Top Free Agent Picksups: Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dexter McCluster, Ben Tate (how is he available in 34% of leagues?), Demarius Moore (you might drop him right away, but lets face it, there is someone on your bench you can risk dropping).
How I Did: Week 2
This is where you get to see the results of my predictions and determine whether you trust me or not. Remember, if I call someone a “HIT” it doesn't necessarily mean they are going to have a monster game, and vice versa. In the “Hits and Misses” column read the two to three sentences to see what I mean by “HIT” or “MISS.” Also, whenever I talk about fantasy points I am speaking in SLS – Standard League Scoring. Most leagues operate on 10 yards = 1 point for rushing and receiving and 25 yards = 1 point passing. Passing TDs are only worth four compared to all others being six.
Aaron Rodgers, HIT – Rodgers threw 30 times, connecting on 19 of them for three touchdowns and just over 300 yards.
LeSean McCoy, HIT – 116 all purpose yards and two touchdowns makes for a very nice day.
Drew Brees, MISS – I feel like I got this one right. Brees didn't hit the 300 yard mark, but he did throw three touchdowns and win the game. I did say Brees would get points, and I do feel like the 22 points (in standard scoring leagues) is less than his expected production. Still, he only averaged 16 points per game last season, so this is above his average. Let's call it a push.
Michael Turner, HIT – Turner performed as expected with 114 yards and a touchdown on the ground as well as 32 yards out of the backfield.
Darren McFadden, MISS – McFadden had 143 combined yards and two total touchdowns. He did fumble once, but that isn't enough to say MISS. I was wrong on this one, his shoulder apparently didn't keep him down.
Jordy Nelson, HIT – Look, it doesn't matter if it happens on one play or over the course of the game. There aren't special point reductions if someone is invisible all game then has one monster play to put up fantasy numbers. Nelson caught one pass, but it went for 84 yards and a score. That's 14 points for those of you scoring at home. He had 13 points last week. Is it too early to start considering Nelson for flex play?
Cedric Benson, HIT – I said, “The Bengals' passing game is still questionable.” Nope. Andy Dalton threw for over 300 yards and had two touchdowns in the narrow loss. I said, “Benson will get a lot of opportunities.” Nope. At least not comparatively to last week when he had 26 touches. I said, “and in his workmanlike way, will grind out yards.” A 3.7 yards per carry average is certainly workmanlike and had he got the nine extra carries he would have been between 90 and 100 yards. So I get that one, but overall I missed on the hit.
Percy Harvin, HIT – 76 yards on seven catches is certainly flex play material. After you take out the top 20 running backs and top 20 receivers of a given week, then look at the next 10 running backs and receivers combined, those are the week's best flex guys in a ten team league. This weeks best flex guys scored between nine and 11 points. Considering Harvin for flex play, with his seven points, plays.
Deion Branch, HIT – Yep. Eight catches and 129 yards is a solid outing. It isn't news that Tom Brady likes his tight ends in the red zone, but Branch is a bulk receiver who will break off long touchdowns here and there.
Joseph Addai, HIT – Nope. The one bright spot on the Colts from a fantasy perspective was kicker Adam Vinatieri.
Mike Tolbert, MISS – My right shoe is safe, as is my gastrointestinal system. (I bet I am the only fantasy blog to use the word “gastrointestinal”). Tolbert's nine rushes for 10 yards and a fumble was a giant, but expected, drop off from last week. He did have eight catches out of the backfield to keep him in positive points though.
Kenny Britt, MISS - “I will eat the right sole if Britt repeats his 136 yard, two touchdown game against Baltimore.” My left shoe is safe by one yard and one touchdown. Britt didn't “MISS,” but all I said was that he wouldn't have as good of a game as last week, and in that I was right. Barely.
Steve Smith, MISS – Cam Newton's surprising start to his career continues to benefit Smith. He didn't have a touchdown this week but still nabbed 156 yards receiving.
Owen Daniels, HIT – Daniels was the 10th best tight end. He only had three catches but one was for a touchdown. Unless you owned one of the other nine tight ends who was better, Daniels was a hit.
Record: 9-4-1
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Hits and Misses: Week 2
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Mid-Week Update - Handcuffing Injuries
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Week 1 What We Learned
Disclaimer: What We Learned is definitely slanted towards games I actually watch, and what I can glean from the stats of games I didn't. Obviously, games I am more likely to watch are games shown in my home market – I don't have NFL Network, games I have players in and games of my favorite team (Chicago Bears). That said, take that into account when reading What We Learned, I may miss something, or dwell on particular games that I watched all the way through (for example: The Packers/Saints game this week). Finally, if you don't like it, don't read it.
Aaron Rodgers is a stud. He threw for 200 yards and three touchdowns in the first quarter Thursday night against the Saints. It's true that he only had a little more than a 100 yards and no more touchdowns for the rest of the game, but that was a product of clock management, not the Packers' offense.
Drew Brees is a stud. If Rodgers was the hare, Brees was the steady tortoise who didn't quite win. Brees threw for three touchdowns and 419 yards. He did throw 49 times, 8 more times a game than he did last season, in a this-close come-from-behind effort. To put that in perspective, Brees' yards per attempted pass this week was 8.6. His past three seasons were 7.0 (2010), 8.5 (2009) and 8.0 (2008). So, while higher than his numbers for the last three years, it is still within the normal range for him. That said, his 49 attempts was a good bit higher than his averages for 2008-10; 40 (2008), 33 (2009), 41 (2010). What does it all mean? Brees' numbers were slightly increased because of having to play from behind for the entire game, but not by much. While I wouldn't expect consistent 400 yard games, 9-10 more 300+ games are definitely in play. With Manning out (potentially for the rest of the season), Brees will be in contention with Rodgers, Brady, Vick and possibly Rivers for the most productive fantasy quarterback of 2011.
Brees still likes to spread the ball around. While not completely apparent from the first week's stats, I think it is safe to say nobody expected 100+ yards for Devery Henderson. Before you jump on the waiver wire though, remember that if history prevails, Brees will dish out 100 yard games to Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore before the season is out. He also looked more than willing to check down to Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas who combined for 11 catches and 112 yards. I wouldn't count on a single one of them on a week-to-week basis.
Kick returns for touchdowns are still possible with the new kickoff rules. For those of you who don't already know, teams used to kick off from their own 30 yard line, but due to injury concerns, Roger Goodell and company moved the spot up five yards. During the preseason this appeared to guarantee touchback after touchback. And while this was mostly still the case, Packers rookie wideout Randall Cobb took one to the house in the third quarter, as did Minnesota's Percy Harvin's on a 103 yard opening kickoff return. Finally, Tedd Ginn Jr. for San Francisco got one and added a punt return for good measure.
Mark Ingram got the lion's share of carries for the Saints, but was only able to muster 40 yards on 13 carries, including a no gain on the final play with the game on the line.
Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy's contributions catching the ball out of the backfield will be unmeasurably valuable – well that's not entirely true, we can measure it with fantasy points. Both are in offenses that utilize the backfield as receivers.
Gabe Carimi (Rookie from the University of Wisconsin and starting right tackle for the Chicago Bears) is great in run blocking. The Bears ran off the right side often. His pass blocking is terrible. He allowed [sacks allowed stats] and of all the times Cutler was pressured, most of them came from the right side. This is bad for Cutler, especially in an offense that allowed a league leading 52 sacks last season, but good for Forte as this will even further increase his check down catches.
Cam Newton looked decent. I fully expected him to come out and have a rough start to his career, but his decision making looked good. [I wrote this in the first quarter with the intention of filling it out at the end of the game]. Then he went off for 422 yards on 24/37 and two touchdowns, as well as a rushing TD. It was against Arizona, but we will not spend the next six days hearing about how “legit” Newton is. Green Bay's defense won't give him as much next week (I mean, he isn't Drew Brees), so then we will spend another six days hearing about how rookie quarterbacks struggle for consistency. In all of this will anyone be sensible enough to realize that Newton and the Panthers will be playing Atlanta, Tampa Bay and New Orleans twice this season? Cutler threw for 312 against Atlanta, Stafford threw for 305 against Tampa and Rodgers had 312 against New Orleans. Now, Newton obviously isn't Rodgers, but isn't it conceivable that Newton could have a statistically similar year to Cutler? Take away a handful of passing touchdowns, move 'em over to the rushing column and keep the INTs the same and I think their seasons are about equal. Also, apparently the NFC South will give up passing yards. The rest of the Panther's schedule isn't that tough either. After the Packers, Carolina will face, in order: Jacksonville, Chicago, New Orleans, Atlanta, Washington, Minnesota, bye, Tennessee, Detroit, Indianapolis, Tampa, Atlanta, Houston, Tampa, New Orleans. Could Newton have a 3,000 yard season? Does a bear shit in the woods? The question will be his touchdown versus interception ratio. We learned this: It is in play for Newton to be a top 12 fantasy quarterback as a rookie.
Shorts:
Mike Tolbert had three touchdowns on Sunday in case anybody was wondering.
Ray Rice could end up as this season's fantasy MVP.
Tom Brady is very, very good.
Ben Roethlisberger owners shouldn't be hitting the panic button yet.
Neither should Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore or DeAngelo Williams owners.
Jamaal Charles owners should have their finger hovering just above the panic button.