Hits and Misses: Week 2

Hits and Misses will be a weekly post that features the fantasy players I feel will play well (hits) and those that won't (misses). You start your stars, that's a given, but this is a column for those guys on the edge. Guys you might start or not. That said, sometimes the stars will make cameos if I think their positioned to have bigger than normal games.

Aaron Rodgers, GB (@ Carolina) HIT - Do you know who is currently 11th in the league with 309 passing yards? Kevin Kolb. Do you know who Arizona played last week? The Carolina Panthers. Did you know that Aaron Rodgers is a much quarterback than Kolb? And, did you know that the Packers threw 35 times last week? I know it is risky to only use one week of play to extrapolate statistics, but we are talking about the reigning Super Bowl MVP going against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

LeSean McCoy, PHI (@ Atlanta) HIT - Last week, Chicago running back Matt Forte ran for 68 yards and caught five passes for 90 and a touchdown against the Falcons. McCoy will post similar numbers. He probably won't have a monster day on the ground, at least in terms of yards, but as a receiver out of the backfield he will. Remember, McCoy was eighth in the league last year in reception. Atlanta will be looking to blitz Vick and force him to make decisions. Often, the decision will be to dump the ball into the hands of a playmaker.

Drew Brees, NO (Chicago) MISS - Look, it's Drew freakin' Brees, you're going to start him unless you for some reason have Brady, Rodgers or Vick as well. He threw for 419 yards last week. He is a Super Bowl champion, dedicated worker and all around nice guy. But his receiving corps is missing Marques Colston and Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem can only do so much. The Bears showed they were capable of locking down a top tier receiver like Roddy White in week one, and they will be playing on the emotion of and for defensive leader Brian Urlacher. To be sure, Brees will get points, but it will be less than usual.

Michael Turner, ATL (Philadelphia) HIT - The middle of the Eagles' line is weak and Turner is a bulldozing tank with a wrecking ball. The guy weighs about 250 pounds and is nicknamed "Burner." The Falcons have little-to-no passing game out of the backfield and must establish the run to open up the secondary. Establishment, "Burner" Turner, be thy name.

Darren McFadden, OAK (Buffalo) MISS - The whole "East Coast Team travelling West" scenario is overshadowed by the "playing on a short week" and "injured" scenarios. McFadden's shoulder injury isn't significant enough to keep him out of the game, but did limit him in practice this week. It is way too early to be singing the praises of the Buffalo Bills, but they did hold Jamaal Charles to a deceiving stat line of 10 carries for 56 yards. This is not as telling as it could be, because the Bills had amassed such a lead that KC had to abandon the run and air it out. Still, I don't like McFadden this week.

Jordy Nelson, GB (Carolina) HIT - Mark my words, Nelson will develop into an every week starter by the end of the season. James Jones was nonexistent in the first week, and now that Donald Driver will have his team receiving record, Nelson will continue to come up big.

Cedric Benson, CIN (@Denver) HIT - Denver gave up big yards to Oakland last week, the Bengals' passing game is still questionable. Benson will get a lot of opportunities, and in his workmanlike way, will grind out yards.

Percy Harvin, MIN (Tampa Bay) HIT - Yes, the Vikings had 39 yards passing last week but that won't be the case all the time. Harvin is the number one receiver in Minnesota, and they ostensibly have a solid ground game in Adrian Peterson. This week, Peterson opens up the offense and allows Donovan McNabb to get the ball in Harvin's hands. Also, he is a special teams threat, as evidenced by his week one kick return for a touchdown. He should get consideration at the flex.

Deion Branch, NE (San Diego) HIT - While Welker, Gronkowski and Hernandez were all making noise behind Tom Brady's 500+ yard Monday night, Branch had seven catches for 93 yards. Yards and touchdowns won't always be so easy coming for the Patriots this year, but I like Branch as WR2 or a flex.

Joseph Addai, IND (Cleveland) HIT - Would you rely on Kerry Collins to move your offense?

Mike Tolbert, SD (@New England) MISS - I will eat the left sole of my own shoe if Tolbert repeats his three touchdown performance against New England.

Kenny Britt, TEN (Baltimore) MISS - I will eat the right sole if Britt repeats his 136 yard, two touchdown game against Baltimore.

Steve Smith, CAR (Green Bay) MISS - Smith's big surprise in the first week was really a combination of Cam Newton surprising, and Arizona's terrible secondary. I am not the first to say that Newton will not get simple reads from the Packers and it will be Steve Smith's numbers who suffer.

Owen Daniels, HOU (@Miami) HIT - Daniels underwhelmed last week, but Miami gave up 517 yards and four touchdowns in the passing game. You can't expect Andre Johnson to shoulder the entire receiving load and with Kevin Walter hurting Daniels will be the beneficiary.

One Deep Cut

Lee Evans, BAL (@Tennessee) - In deeper leagues, or if you're feeling frisky, I think Evans gets at least one big yardage touchdown.

Week 1 What We Learned

Disclaimer: What We Learned is definitely slanted towards games I actually watch, and what I can glean from the stats of games I didn't. Obviously, games I am more likely to watch are games shown in my home market – I don't have NFL Network, games I have players in and games of my favorite team (Chicago Bears). That said, take that into account when reading What We Learned, I may miss something, or dwell on particular games that I watched all the way through (for example: The Packers/Saints game this week). Finally, if you don't like it, don't read it.

Aaron Rodgers is a stud. He threw for 200 yards and three touchdowns in the first quarter Thursday night against the Saints. It's true that he only had a little more than a 100 yards and no more touchdowns for the rest of the game, but that was a product of clock management, not the Packers' offense.

Drew Brees is a stud. If Rodgers was the hare, Brees was the steady tortoise who didn't quite win. Brees threw for three touchdowns and 419 yards. He did throw 49 times, 8 more times a game than he did last season, in a this-close come-from-behind effort. To put that in perspective, Brees' yards per attempted pass this week was 8.6. His past three seasons were 7.0 (2010), 8.5 (2009) and 8.0 (2008). So, while higher than his numbers for the last three years, it is still within the normal range for him. That said, his 49 attempts was a good bit higher than his averages for 2008-10; 40 (2008), 33 (2009), 41 (2010). What does it all mean? Brees' numbers were slightly increased because of having to play from behind for the entire game, but not by much. While I wouldn't expect consistent 400 yard games, 9-10 more 300+ games are definitely in play. With Manning out (potentially for the rest of the season), Brees will be in contention with Rodgers, Brady, Vick and possibly Rivers for the most productive fantasy quarterback of 2011.

Brees still likes to spread the ball around. While not completely apparent from the first week's stats, I think it is safe to say nobody expected 100+ yards for Devery Henderson. Before you jump on the waiver wire though, remember that if history prevails, Brees will dish out 100 yard games to Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Lance Moore before the season is out. He also looked more than willing to check down to Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas who combined for 11 catches and 112 yards. I wouldn't count on a single one of them on a week-to-week basis.

Kick returns for touchdowns are still possible with the new kickoff rules. For those of you who don't already know, teams used to kick off from their own 30 yard line, but due to injury concerns, Roger Goodell and company moved the spot up five yards. During the preseason this appeared to guarantee touchback after touchback. And while this was mostly still the case, Packers rookie wideout Randall Cobb took one to the house in the third quarter, as did Minnesota's Percy Harvin's on a 103 yard opening kickoff return. Finally, Tedd Ginn Jr. for San Francisco got one and added a punt return for good measure.

Mark Ingram got the lion's share of carries for the Saints, but was only able to muster 40 yards on 13 carries, including a no gain on the final play with the game on the line.

Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy's contributions catching the ball out of the backfield will be unmeasurably valuable – well that's not entirely true, we can measure it with fantasy points. Both are in offenses that utilize the backfield as receivers.

Gabe Carimi (Rookie from the University of Wisconsin and starting right tackle for the Chicago Bears) is great in run blocking. The Bears ran off the right side often. His pass blocking is terrible. He allowed [sacks allowed stats] and of all the times Cutler was pressured, most of them came from the right side. This is bad for Cutler, especially in an offense that allowed a league leading 52 sacks last season, but good for Forte as this will even further increase his check down catches.

Cam Newton looked decent. I fully expected him to come out and have a rough start to his career, but his decision making looked good. [I wrote this in the first quarter with the intention of filling it out at the end of the game]. Then he went off for 422 yards on 24/37 and two touchdowns, as well as a rushing TD. It was against Arizona, but we will not spend the next six days hearing about how “legit” Newton is. Green Bay's defense won't give him as much next week (I mean, he isn't Drew Brees), so then we will spend another six days hearing about how rookie quarterbacks struggle for consistency. In all of this will anyone be sensible enough to realize that Newton and the Panthers will be playing Atlanta, Tampa Bay and New Orleans twice this season? Cutler threw for 312 against Atlanta, Stafford threw for 305 against Tampa and Rodgers had 312 against New Orleans. Now, Newton obviously isn't Rodgers, but isn't it conceivable that Newton could have a statistically similar year to Cutler? Take away a handful of passing touchdowns, move 'em over to the rushing column and keep the INTs the same and I think their seasons are about equal. Also, apparently the NFC South will give up passing yards. The rest of the Panther's schedule isn't that tough either. After the Packers, Carolina will face, in order: Jacksonville, Chicago, New Orleans, Atlanta, Washington, Minnesota, bye, Tennessee, Detroit, Indianapolis, Tampa, Atlanta, Houston, Tampa, New Orleans. Could Newton have a 3,000 yard season? Does a bear shit in the woods? The question will be his touchdown versus interception ratio. We learned this: It is in play for Newton to be a top 12 fantasy quarterback as a rookie.

Shorts:

Mike Tolbert had three touchdowns on Sunday in case anybody was wondering.

Ray Rice could end up as this season's fantasy MVP.

Tom Brady is very, very good.

Ben Roethlisberger owners shouldn't be hitting the panic button yet.

Neither should Larry Fitzgerald, Roddy White, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore or DeAngelo Williams owners.

Jamaal Charles owners should have their finger hovering just above the panic button.