Quarterback Rankings: Week 7-13

In ESPN Standard Leagues, weeks fourteen through seventeen are playoffs, so week seven is the halfway point of the fantasy regular season. With that in mind let's go through the top players at each position this week, interspersed with free agent pick ups for the week and my Hits and Misses. That's right, as a makeup for being away I am going big. Let's get started...

QBs:

Methodology - By looking at the remaining schedules of the top quarterbacks in the league through the thirteenth week I determined strength of schedule by taking their opponents ranks in Passing Yards Per Game Allowed, Passing Touchdowns Allowed, Passing Yards Allowed. Certain teams, like the Indianapolis Colts (0-6) have decent passing defense numbers (15th in TDs, 18th in YPG), but this is only because teams are getting big leads early and running the ball. Your top 15 quarterbacks for the rest of the fantasy season (not including playoffs) are:

1. Aaron Rodgers - Rodgers remaining schedule is almost irrelevant. Currently he sits atop the leaderboard for most fantasy points scored this season. He is averaging 338.5 yards per game, and is on pace to throw 45 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. He is completing 70% of his passes and throwing just under 35 times a game. His season quarterback rating is 122.5; forget fantasy MVP, Rodgers is putting up NFL MVP numbers. It is likely if you have Rodgers, you are riding him to the playoffs.

2. Cam Newton - Adrian Peterson. That is not a typo or a formatting error. Adrian Peterson. Why is AP relevant to Newton? Because Peterson is the only player in the NFL with more rushing touchdowns than Cam Newton. The only reason Newton takes the nod here over Brady is his running ability. Newton is averaging over 300 yards a game passing but his touchdown-to-interception ratio (7-9) holds him back. Still, Newton is the new Vick.

3. Tom Brady - Brady is putting up numbers similar to Rodgers. His insane 360.5 YPG and 16 TDs are only brought down by a second in the league eight interceptions. The Patriots love to go to their tight ends in the red zone and this is going to keep Brady's touchdown number high but two dates stick out - week 10 at the Jets and 12 at Philadelphia. Both are in the top-ten for interceptions this season and the Jets are top-five in all three passing categories mentioned above.

4. Matthew Stafford - Conventional wisdom puts Brees here, but conventional wisdom doesn't have Megatron. Besides, I like Stafford's schedule and the Lions will be playing for a wild card spot.

5. Drew Brees - I do not like the Saints offense. Who is the star? Who will put the team on their back down the stretch. Brees can, and has in the past, but he has to have weapons. Right now, his biggest weapon is tight end Jimmy Graham who is third in the league for receiving yards. Not out of tight ends, in the league. He is having a Tony Gonzales/Gates type of season. As a matter of fact, the best tight ends all seem to have a "G" to start their last name. Hmm... this could affect my drafting strategy next year. Anyway, Brees is also completing 68% of the time and throwing a league leading 44 times a game. The Saints aren't a great team this year, but Brees is still putting up great numbers.

6. Eli Manning - Manning has three receivers who can go off on any given week in Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz. Manning is averaging just under 300 yards per game, has a 2.5-to-1 TD-to-INT ration and is completing almost 64% of his passes.

7. Michael Vick - Vick's injury potential is tempered with his incredibly friendly schedule from here on out. Chicago, Arizona, Seattle and Miami are all upcoming and he has this week's Eagles bye to rest up and get ready for the rest of the season. Vick falls because of his turnovers and the aforementioned injury potential.

8. Carson Palmer - "Palmer drop back, he launches it downfield to Darrius Heyward-Bey. TOUCHDOWN!" Get used to hearing it now. Here's Palmer's schedule for the rest of the fantasy regular season: Kansas City, bye, Denver, then on the road to San Diego and Minnesota, back home for Chicago, at Miami and at Green Bay. The only defense I am scared of on there is San Diego. Green Bay gets a lot of pressure on the quarterback, and force turnovers, but they also give up big yards. Palmer is the most important pickup you can make this week. If you don't have Rodgers or Brady, I would be putting a waiver claim out on Palmer five hours ago when the news broke. In fact, if I had either I would still be putting in the claim - Brady is on bye this week (Palmer and Rodgers are both on bye next week). But temper expectations this first week against the Chiefs. He will be putting up modest numbers as the Raiders will ground and pound to ease him into the offense and use their own bye week to acclimate him.

9. Ryan Fitzpatrick - It is hard to put him in here. Of all the top quarterback he has the toughest schedule. Facing the Jets twice as well as the Chargers and even Washington are hard sells. Tennessee and Dallas have middle of the road pass defenses, I think he gets over on the Titans at least. The one bright spot is Miami is on the schedule! Still, the Bills have a legitimate running game as well as legitimate playoffs aspirations. To make it to the post-season Fitzpatrick will have to keep it up and the running game makes that possible.

10. Tony Romo - If you only listen to the media, or only check the final scores, Tony Romo does not belong on this list. But Romo is averaging over 300 yards per game and they just lost their starting running back, Felix Jones. His 38.6 pass attempts per game should jump 2-3 tries. And he does have a great 1-2-3 punch in Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. Also, Romo's injuries have had an extra week to heal. In fact, this week against the Rams, Romo should get some swagger back. He is definitely a HIT this week. It's possible that some owner has dropped him or is ready to sell low - if you are facing a bye this week at quarterback, Romo should be targeted.

11. Matt Schaub - He will get Andre Johnson back. Arian Foster is back fulltime. This offense will click and Schuab's numbers will go up. Jacksonville, Cleveland, at Tampa and then a bye before going to Jacksonville, home against Atlanta to end the fantasy regular season. If you want to get really scary about it, if you have Schaub and make the playoffs you have him away at Cinncy and home against Carolina in the first round and then at Indianapolis and home for Tennessee. That is a schedule fantasy super bowls are made of.

12. Josh Freeman - Freeman is currently ranked 10th in fantasy points for quarterbacks this season and if not for a stinker against San Francisco he would be even higher. After Chicago this week, he gets the Saints, Texans, Packers, Titans and Panthers.

13. Matt Ryan - "Matty Ice" is having some issues of his own. The pieces all seem to be there for the Falcons to have a high powered offense - two receivers and a tight end that are all threats, a solid running back in Michael Turner and back-up Jason Snelling. Someone better than I needs to figure out their problems and if they do, he would vault back into the top-ten.

14. Phillip Rivers - Rivers has an easy rest of the schedule, playing in an easy division. The Chargers feel like a team that could go through this whole season having never been truly tested only to get blown out by a wild card team in the playoffs. Rivers does have 11 turnovers compared to only six touchdowns or he would be higher on this list.

15. Mark Sanchez - I like Sanchez better than Ryan or Rivers, but his -4 point game in week four was off-putting, to say the least. It was against Baltimore and they forced him into five turnovers. The GQ coverboy has two over 3oo yard games this season but has yet to throw for more than two touchdowns in a game. His schedule isn't the best, though, and he should be a backup option.

Notable absences: None. If you think Matt Hasselbeck, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler or anyone lower than them in the standings belongs on this list you should stop playing fantasy football now.

Back Up This Week

Hey there all, sorry I got behind with school work. But Friday I will have "Hits and Misses" up.

See you then.

1/4 Season Fantasy Awards

We all love fantasy, and if you read this blog you are either a close friend of mine, probably; or stumbled across it by accident. I love the minutiae of fantasy football - the stats and research. Giving quarter awards allows me to talk about players and teams that are doing well, without the constructs of talking about how they did THIS week, or how they will do NEXT week. So without further ado, here are the awards.

Best Quarterback - Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay

How does a quarterback with 168 yards and two touchdowns less than Tom Brady get the "Best Quarterback" ranking? By throwing two less interceptions and having two rushing TDs to Brady's zero. Still, it is only a nine point difference. Going forward Brady has a cakewalk schedule, which ends at Denver and home for Miami and Buffalo. Hopefully for Brady owners the Pats haven't already wrapped up homefield by the point and are resting starters. Conversely, Rodgers schedule is not exactly brutal, but no one stands out as pass busters. Especially the way Rodgers has looked. His week five stat line was a ridiculous 408 yards and 6 TDs (4/2) for a 45 point fantasy day. Here's another set of numbers for you - Rodgers: 24, 21, 21, 45; Brady: 34, 28, 23, 17.

Most Disappointing Quarterback -

It has to be someone who was top-10 projected, even better if they were top-5. Also, this quarterback has to be seriously underperforming against expectations. Top five candidates in no particular order - Michael Vick, Phillip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger.

In ESPN's preseason Draft Kit rankings, fantasy writers had Vick - 2, Rivers - 5, Schaub - 7, Roethlisberger - 8 and Ryan 10. They currently sit at Vick - 6, Rivers - 14, Schaub - 15, Ryan - 16 and Roethlisberger - 28. (Even though Romo was pre-ranked at 6th, I think everyone was in agreement that this was way too high.)

Vick's drop has been a combination of two factors, injuries and the unexpected play of Cam Newton and Matthew Stafford. If those two are closer to their expected level, Vick, even with the injuries is a top five quarterback. Schaub and Ryan were certainly expected to take the next steps this year but have sputtered out of the gate.

That leaves us with Rivers and Roethlisberger. All summer long as commentators talked about the rise of Aaron Rodgers, the best quarterbacks in the league conversation went something like this:

Guy A - "Manning/Brady have to be 1-2 in some order, then Brees and Rodgers are right there followed by Rivers."

Guy B - "What about Ben Roethlisberger, he has two Super Bowl rings?"

And this was universally agreed upon. The top five did include 1/2 Brady/Manning in some order, 3/4 Brees/Rodgers in some order and then Rivers with Big Ben having to be brought up because of his post-season success. (This fails to include Vick, as most of these conversations centered around traditional passing quarterbacks). And now, if you had to redraft, you might not even take either as a bye week quarterback.

That's not true, if not for only posting six points against Kansas City in week three Rivers would probably be a top 10 QB, but I think the expectations were so much higher for him than he has performed so far. The one category he does lead the NFL in is interceptions. He does get Denver this week who Rodgers just got done torching, so he has a chance to redeem himself.

But it is Big Ben Roethlisberger who earns the award here. He leads the NFL in turnovers with five interceptions and four fumbles. The Steelers offensive line is having major problems and the big fella has yet to throw for a multiple touchdown day. He has more interceptions (let alone total turnovers) than he does touchdowns.

Most Surprising Quarterback - Cam Newton, Carolina

Newton has two less fantasy points than Tom Brady and nine more than Drew Brees. Having four rushing TDs certainly helps that number (which is 100 by the way). Newton is another player with more turnovers than touchdowns (5/6). Also, he has only thrown more than one TD once but he is third in the league for passing yards and first for rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. These are not unreasonable trends that can't keep up. These are the things that Newton is capable of doing all season. It doesn't translate to the Panthers winning many games; but it does make him a top-10 quarterback from here on out.

Best Running Back -

The Candidates: Darren McFadden, LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice.

I am only in one league this year and it is a nice friendly league with mostly family members, or friends who are as close as family. My wife plays, my sister and her husband, my cousin and one of our best friends, etc... It is a keeper league where two players are kept from year to year. Somehow, McFadden and McCoy were not kept. I was drafting 7/8 and sincerely hoped one of the two would fall to me. Didn't happen. I literally let out a giant sigh as I wrote that sentence, thinking about what could have been. I was on the bandwagon early with these guys, most notably McCoy - in week one I told you all to trade for him if at all possible.

Currently, McFadden is leading all RBs with 79 points, followed by McCoy and Rice with 77 and 75 respectively. McCoy leads in total touchdowns with six, while the other two each have four. But here is the most interesting stat - opportunities; that is rushing attempts combined with passing targets. McFadden leads with 93 (75/18), followed by Rice with 91 (66/25) and McC0y at 85 (66/19).

McFadden gets the quarter season award, but these numbers spell a trend and I am going out right now saying that of these three, Rice ends with the highest fantasy total at the end of the season.

Most Disappointing RB -

It is really easy here to say Jamaal Charles who is done for the season with an ACL injury (everyone who drafted him in the first round are in agreement); or even Arian Foster who was limited in the first three weeks by a hamstring injury. But injuries happen, it is one of the risks of fantasy football. I am more interested in a player who isn't injured and is just underperforming

The Candidates - Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall

Yes, Mendenhall was injured in the third quarter of this last game, but continuing to play couldn't have brought him out of candidacy for this award. Before Sunday's game, Mendenhall had 49 attempts for 148 yards and a single TD. He was averaging six fantasy points a game. Sunday's 25 yard, one TD, injury shortened outing wasn't bringing those numbers up significantly. As noted above, the problem for the Steelers offense is the line, and until they can get things figured out up front, Big Ben and Mendenhall will continue to disappoint.

The real winner here is Johnson (and the losers are his owners) who has underwhelmed. He got his first triple digit rushing day on Sunday (which was his first double digit fantasy day) but still has zero touchdowns on the season. I don't know, it might just be me, but maybe that diamond CJ2K pendant he wears during games is slowing him down. Also, let's say a linebacker really clocks Johnson a good one and the pendant snaps off the chain - does he get to keep it as like a trophy the way a hunter mounts a deer head on the wall?

Most Surprising Running Back

The Candidates - Darren Sproles, Beanie Wells

Wells was preseason ranked as the 24th best running back and currently sits as the seventh best, a number which would be higher if he had played in week three. But Sproles has posted double digits in 4/4 weeks and is a must start at this point - despite being ranked 50th for RBs in the preseason. He isn't doing it rushing - he only has 15 attempts. But only Matt Forte, Ryan Matthews and Ray Rice are out producing him in receiving yards and he leads all RBs in targets.

Best Wide Receiver - Wes Welker (and it's not even close)

Yes, Calvin Johnson is studding out right now, but he is still 14 points behind Welker. Welker's five TDs and 616 yards receiving is astounding. He leads all fantasy players that are not quarterbacks.

It won't last all season though (maybe) as Johnson is at eight TDs in four games. Johnson won't catch 32 touchdowns (probably) but he should still end up as the best receiver when all is said and done (possibly).

Most Disappointing Wide Receiver - Roddy White

White was ranked as the second best receiver going into this season and currently sits at 24th. He has one touchdown and only one game over 100 yards - which happened to be his only double digit fantasy day. He is a big disappointment, especially to me as I drafted him in the first round (after two keeper "rounds") instead of getting McFadden or McCoy like I was targeting.

Most Surprising Wide Receiver - Jordy Nelson

Not to me though. You see, I used a late draft pick to nab Nelson under the assumption that Donald Driver is as old as Methuselah and James Jones drops a lot of passes. I saw Nelson moving into the top three with Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley in Green Bay.

Well, well, well, I am not above tooting my own horn so let Nelson's place as the 11th best fantasy receiver and 3/4 double digit games count as my "TOOT-TOOT."

Other notes -

Who cares about Tight Ends, Defenses and Kickers? Gates has been hurt, Pittsburgh isn't as great as they used to be and Jason Hansen is old but awesome. There.

No Post This Week

I have had a weekend and have been unable to access the interwebs until just now so there is no HIT/MISS column this week.

Go Badgers and Brewers!

Week 3 What We Learned

All offseason football fans were worried that we might miss NFL games due to the lockout. In the end, we got the whole season but at what price? The lack of full preseason workouts is a contributor to the rash of injuries to big name stars like Kenny Britt and Jamaal Charles; as well as the slow starts of others like Frank Gore and Chris Johnson. Injuries happen, and the lockout cannot be blamed 100%, but it is a factor.

Speaking of injuries: Michael Vick is going to get hit a lot and will miss games this season. Guaranteed. If you own Michael Vick and haven't already made a move for a decent backup you must do this now. I like Matt Hasselback and Rex Grossman for this move.

Matthew Stafford and Ryan Fitzpatrick are each 3-0 and in the top 10 for quarterbacks. To own them is to love them.

Wes Welker is averaging 10 catches, 152 yards and a touchdown a game. Of those numbers, the 10 catches a game will be the only one to potentially hold up season-long. There is a fall off, but Welker is still one of the most valuable receivers in fantasy.

LaDanian Tomlinson still has a little left in the tank and made sure the Oakland Raiders knew this with a 70 yards touchdown reception. He may not be a reliable fantasy option at his age, but in deeper leagues or in desperate injury situations he is a boom or bust option.

Ben Roethlisberger has almost three times as many turnovers as touchdowns.

Fred Jackson is playing lights out in Buffalo.

Free Agents - Nate Washington, Bernard Scott, Torrey Smith, Rex Grossman, David Nelson

How I Did: Week 3

This is where you get to see the results of my predictions and determine whether you trust me or not. Remember, if I call someone a "HIT" it doesn't necessarily mean they are going to have a monster game, and vice versa. In the "Hits and Misses" column read the two to three sentences to see what I mean by "HIT" or "MISS." Also, whenever I talk about fantasy points I am speaking of ESPN Standard League Scoring.

With Kenny Britt's season ending ACL/MCL tear Nate Washington stands to benefit the most. Also benefiting from a starter not playing could be Bernard Scott with Cedric Benson's upcoming suspension. Finally, if your first three catches in your NFL career go for touchdowns, you will be picked up in fantasy football, if only on speculation. If you have room on your roster, stash Smith there and see how he plays for the next few weeks. As far as Grossman, you could do a lot worse for a bye week quarterback than Sexy Rexy. David Nelson has 20 catches in three games and the Bills do not look like they are abandoning the passing game any time soon. Nelson is third on the depth chart but is making catches and getting yards out of the slot.

Hits and Misses from Week 3

Jay Cutler, MISS - "He will probably be sacked around four times and throw two picks." Three sacks and two picks puts me spot on. Also, Cutler finished 11th (again in ESPN standard scoring) among quarterbacks for the week.

Matt Forte, HIT - Hard to call a two yard rushing performance with no touchdowns a hit. But he did finish in the top 25 for running backs (it was that kind of week), including ending ahead of Jahvid Best, Ben Tate, Chris Johnson and Rashard Mendenhall. He did this by grabbing 80 receiving yards. Still, it would have been nice to get a score out of him, but this is a hit only by how much worse other running backs did than him.

Tony Romo, HIT - I took a shot, and I was wrong. The Cowboys won, and Romo was key in leading the winning drive, but he never scored, threw one interception and ended with eight fantasy points.

Ben Roethlisberger, HIT - The guy threw for 364 yards, you would think that would lead to more than just one touchdown. But three turnovers has Big Ben looking like the Big Bust for the third week in a row.

Josh Freeman, MISS - Freeman's rushing touchdown saved him from having a God-awful day, and put him straddling the line between a terrible and a decent-to-middling day.

Maurice Jones-Drew, HIT - No touchdowns, but he rushed for 122 yards on 24 attempts and caught three passes for 45 yards. 16 fantasy points was good enough to be the eighth best back this week.

Cedric Benson, HIT - Two weeks in a row I have been waiting for Benson to break out, and it hasn't happened yet. With a potential three game suspension looming I am cutting bait on Benson.

Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, MISS - 29 total combined touches (rushing and receiving) for a total of 95 all-purpose yards. No touchdowns. If you combined them this week they were still barely a starting back.

Steve Smith, HIT - Two catches for 27 yards and no touchdowns a HIT does not make.

Reggie Wayne, MISS - Neither does three for 24 yards and no TDs.

AJ Green, HIT - Again, no scores and only 29 receiving yards.

Deion Branch, HIT - Tom Brady threw 45 times, completing 30 of them. Of those 30, 23 were caught by either Wes Welker or Rob Gronkowski (including all four touchdowns). Of Brady's 387 yards Welker and Gronkowski nabbed 326 of them. This leaves seven potential catches and 61 potential yards (although no touchdowns) for Branch to have had. His final numbers? 0 and 0.

Hakeem Nicks, MISS - Manning threw four touchdowns, none to Nicks who finished with two fantasy points.

Rob Gronkowski, HIT - see above.

I finish 8-6 on the week and 17-10-1 for the season.

Hits and Misses: Week 3

Hits and Misses will be a weekly post that features the fantasy players I feel play well (hits) and those that won't (misses). You start your stars, that's a given, but this is a column for those guys on the edge. Guys you might start or not. That said, sometimes the stars will make cameos if I think their positioned to have bigger than normal games.

Jay Cutler, CHI (Green Bay) MISS - Last season the Bears and Packers split the regular season before the Packers eliminated Chicago in the NFC Championship - knocking Cutler out of the game. As I have mentioned, Cutler was sacked a league leading 52 times last year, and currently leads the league with 11. Clay Matthews is a sack master and the Packers will try to exploit the Bears' offensive line. He will probably be sacked around four times and throw two picks.

Matt Forte, CHI (Green Bay) HIT - My love affair continues. Because of the pressure, Cutler will be forced to check down and Forte remains the main beneficiary.

Tony Romo, DAL (Washington) HIT - Think those first two were gimmes? Here's one for you, Romo will play, throw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns. "What?" you say? "Miles Austin is hurt and Dez Bryant is questionable," you say? I say Romo.

Ben Roethlisberger, PITT (@Indianapolis) HIT - Big Ben gets Big Points in Indy.

Josh Freeman, TB (Atlanta) MISS - Tampa plays against a divisional opponent who must win and is playing at home, with a quarterback nicknamed "Matty Ice." But most importantly, gives up big run yards. Tampa might win, and Freeman will be middling to decent, but there are better options at quarterback this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX (@Carolina) HIT - MoJo has gotten 20+ touches in the each of the first two weeks. With Blaine Gabbert starting under center, his touches aren't going anywhere and neither are his fantasy points.

Cedric Benson, CIN (San Francisco) HIT - The Bengals are going to try and keep the Niner defense on the field and control the clock. They will do this by giving the ball to Benson, and giving it to him and giving it to him again. They don't have to worry to much about overworking him as he is receiving a mandatory vacation after this week. The only possible drawback is backup Bernard Scott stealing some carries to prepare him for Benson's suspension.

Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster, KC (@San Diego) MISS - Until the Chiefs prove otherwise, don't start any of them except in case of emergency.

Steve Smith, CAR (Jacksonville) HIT - Smith is the go-to target for rookie phenom Cam Newton and luckily for Smith owners, Newton's propensity for turnovers could keep this game close and the Panthers attacking through the air.

Reggie Wayne, IND (Pittsburgh) MISS - Kerry Collins may complete more passes to Steelers defenders than his own players.

A.J. Green, CIN (San Francisco) HIT - The 49ers just suck, okay?

Deion Branch, NE (@Buffalo) HIT - I will keep saying this until Branch is owned in 100% of leagues. He jumped up to 99.5% this week, if you are in that 0.5% you must pick him up.

Hakeem Nicks, NYG (@Philadelphia) MISS - Nicks is the only receiver still standing in New York and the Eagles have Nnamdi who has held opponents top receivers to few catches. Nicks is certainly a top receiver, just not this week, and probably not until Mario Manningham and Dominick Hixon are back.

Rob Gronkowski, NE (@Buffalo) HIT - With Aaron Hernandez out, Gronkowski becomes the go-to tight end. He will very likely end up as the the top TE of the week and could be looking at a top player type of week.

Deep Cuts - Owned in less than 75% of ESPN Leagues

Hines Ward, PITT (@IND) HIT - I like Ward this week, if you are hurting from the rash of injuries and need a flex. He is no where near a consistent option this year, but the injuries of receivers around the league and the Steelers' opponent this week makes Ward worth considering.

Sunday Morning Update -

Big injury news is Arian Foster is out, which means Ben Tate is a must start. Peyton Hillis is out with strep throat, so the big waiver wire claim this morning will be Montario Hardesty. I am not convinced Hardesty is the back of the future for Cleveland, but Miami is a cushy test.